Bangladesh caught in the dilemma of energy transition
The developed world is rapidly replacing electricity generation with renewable energy. Picture: star
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The developed world is rapidly replacing electricity generation with renewable energy. Picture: star
Human society uses 10 times more energy today than at the beginning of the 20th century. While wood, coal and animal power dominated the energy scenario before World War II, the transition to oil and gas (hydrocarbons) began in the 1940s to 1970s. The advantage of delivery/storage systems petroleum and their diverse use have contributed to industrialization, transportation, residential heating and power generation. The transition from coal to oil did not take place due to the shortage of coal. Petroleum was simply a better fuel in all respects than coal. The oil economy revolutionized productivity allowing for efficient agriculture and housing. As a result, the human population has increased asymptotically over the past five decades.
The massive use of hydrocarbons has elevated the human way of life and civilization to a different height but at a cost that was not understood at first. The relentless burning of fossil fuels has produced so much carbon dioxide that the existence of human civilization is now at stake due to the greenhouse gas (GHG) (global warming) effect it has created. The transition to renewable and sustainable energy is a human quest for a cleaner and healthier way of life.
For all the latest news, follow the Daily Star’s Google News channel. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to increased greenhouse gas emissions resulting from climate change. It is also one of the most energy-hungry countries with only 433 kWh per capita per year of electricity consumption (EIA 2019 est.) where the global average is over 3,000 kWh. The main action or strategy taken in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 2015 by Bangladesh was to increase resilience through adaptation. At the same time, the country has expressed its intention to unconditionally reduce its GHG emissions by 5% compared to the business as usual scenario by 2030 in the electricity, industry and transport sectors. Subject to transfer of technology and know-how, funding and investment from the international community, Bangladesh is committed to reducing its total GHG emissions by 15%. According to the Paris Agreement, Bangladesh is not obliged to reduce GHG emissions, but in the updated NDC 2021, it has voluntarily committed to unconditionally reduce GHG emissions by 7.5% d 2030 compared to the business as usual scenario.
Countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement are obliged to reduce GHG emissions so that global warming is limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This objective should be achieved by the end of the century. The developed world is rapidly replacing electricity generation with renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, etc.) and gasoline/diesel vehicles with electric vehicles (EV). Several countries have set targets to achieve net zero emissions by 2040/2050.
Bangladesh is one of the worst victims of the effect of climate change and the country’s suffering has increased in recent years. There is widespread support for the implementation of climate-friendly policies and GHG/pollution reduction measures among the general population. At the same time, it has one of the lowest per capita energy consumptions in the world. The country aspires to achieve developed nation status by 2041. Following a low-carbon path by rapidly increasing power generation is a major challenge. Limited resources, lack of advanced technologies, lack of reliable data, inadequate infrastructure and staff capacity are some of the obstacles the country is struggling to overcome. The lack of coordination between the different policies as well as the different agencies/ministries is an obstacle to good governance. A low-carbon development path is costly and access to finance by the power and energy sector faces a major challenge from other sectors. Improving efficiency requires upfront investment, and the private sector, as well as utilities, are discouraged by the lack of low-cost financing.
A country like Bangladesh cannot afford to take measures that would undermine its economic growth. Despite very ambitious planning and the possibility of renewable energy being thrown before the nation, there is no immediate escape from the use of fossil fuels. Any efforts to promote renewable energy or clean energy alternatives should be done in parallel with current generation planning. Any fossil fuel replacement should be done in phases with proven capability. Solar energy has the highest possibility in Bangladesh. Over the past 10 years, a total of 47 projects with a capacity of 2,237 MWp have been proposed and 10 of them have been rejected. Despite 37 projects approved with a power purchase agreement, only 7 projects with a combined capacity of 131 MWp have come online. Perhaps an additional 600 MWp will be commissioned this year. Going to tens of thousands of megawatts is not an easy task. The government has always encouraged solar projects. The scarcity of (non-agricultural) land is the main obstacle to the slow progress of solar projects. Perhaps new technologies and innovation can accelerate the transition to renewable energy. The possibility of a wind power of 20,000 MW remains under study. Not a single commercial proposal was received for any of the nine spots identified in this particular study. A recent deal for a 50 MW project has yet to begin construction.
ILLUSTRATION: Biplob Chakborty
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ILLUSTRATION: Biplob Chakborty
What can the country do? To reduce CO2 emissions, all renewable projects, whether big or small, will need government support. If necessary, incentives should be introduced. Waste energy, solar rooftops in industrial/commercial operations, solar streetlights and irrigation – all areas where solar energy can be used must be supported with policies, regulations and incentives. Households, schools, colleges, offices, mosques, etc. must clearly benefit from the use of additional solar energy during the day. Through the approval of the feed-in tariff (FiT), small-scale solar projects (5-10 MWp) could be promoted. As the country waits for large land reclamation projects and new technologies, all of these small distributed projects can help. The EV law has not yet been formulated. Once the EV policy is approved, EV fast charging stations are to be established across the country. For adaptation to renewable energy, a “smart grid” is a prerequisite as well as a trained workforce. Both require good planning and substantial investment.
While reducing the use of fossil fuels is an obvious choice to mitigate GHG emissions, improving efficiency and conservation are equally effective. By introducing efficient appliances, air conditioners, boilers, motors and other machinery, the country can reduce its electricity consumption by at least 20%. A one degree adjustment in all air conditioners can save 200 MW of electricity during summer peak load. Absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere is a key aspect of achieving Net-Zero emission. CO2 absorption technology is advancing rapidly, but so are trees. Social forestry has been quite successful in Bangladesh and this should be the subject of a new campaign. At the same time, every effort should be made to increase the forest area and tree density of existing forests.
Focusing solely on renewable energy to reduce GHG emissions in Bangladesh would be the wrong approach. In today’s reality, quickly replacing coal, gas and oil will not be possible. Emphasis must be placed on several fronts: most efficient use of fossil fuels, elimination of methane leaks from the vast gas network, promotion of renewable energy at all scales, massive campaign to improve and conserve efficiency energy, increase in forest area, improvement of the electricity grid, nuclear energy, etc. China and India are heavily dependent on coal. At the same time, they implement renewable electricity at the highest tariffs. Both countries are endowed with vast natural resources, including hydropower. Yet India has pledged to reach Net-Zero by 2060 and China by 2070. As a resource-scarce country with a massive population, if Bangladesh can reach Net-Zero by 2070 /80, it will be a great achievement.
Dr M Tamim is a Professor in the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet).